Friday, February 5, 2010

Phil Town on smart managers

Phil Town suggests that you can tell if an analyst has got their head screwed on straight:
First thing is to check two of the Big 5 that Phil Town teaches in his RULE #1 investing book. ROIC and Equity growth rate - for the recommended business.  Those two numbers will disqualify 99% of all of these recommendations and recommenders. 
Phil Town teaches that If the ROIC and Equity growth rates are high enough, consistent and holding or growing, and if the stock price is less than the MOS price, then you have to be interested enough to dig deeper and start looking at the Moat, the Meaning, the Management, all of which take time that I don't want to spend if these people are recommending either unpredictable or overvalued businesses for me to buy.
This is a very quick way to get a reading on the intelligence of the people who are doing the recommending.  The only problem is that after you do this a few times you'll realize that most of the brokers, TV pundits and junk mail soliciters are totally clueless. 
They have about as much business recommending businesses to buy as you or I would have recommending which lottery number is going to come up this week.  That means that you are on your own.  Scary thought.  But better to know what's really going on than to live in a fiscal fantasy and wake up in a financial nightmare, don't you think?
If, on the other hand, you are getting recommendations that turn out to be wonderful businesses at attractive prices, hey, tell me who these guys are, too!

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